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The story · 1981 to 2025

Five things NASA data tell us about South Asia

Each finding is explained in simple words first. The exact numbers are there too, for anyone who wants them.

Finding 1

South Asia is getting warmer, everywhere

+1.4 °C
warmer than in 1981

Since 1981, the whole region has warmed by about +1.4 °C. That is a steady climb of about a third of a degree every 10 years.

All 234 squares on our map got warmer, and not one got cooler. 2024 was the hottest year on record.

Very hot months, more than 1 °C above normal, used to come about 2 times a year in the 1980s. Now it is about 8 months out of 12.

Why is this happening?

Gases from burning coal, oil and gas trap heat, like a blanket around the Earth.

What does it mean for people?

More dangerous heatwaves for workers and farmers, and drier land that catches fire more easily.

How sure are we?
Very sure this is a real change
How much warmer each year was than normal
Each year Long-term trend Likely range of the trend (95%)
00.511.51990200020102020°C warmer than the 1951–1980 average
Warming in every square of the map
+0.172 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.169 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.208 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.188 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.190 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.175 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.175 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.174 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.119 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.168 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.229 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.176 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.177 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.175 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.114 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.231 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.175 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.178 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.179 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.170 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.118 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.116 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.207 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.204 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.183 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.189 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.188 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.171 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.120 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.210 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.278 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.193 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.189 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.184 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.183 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.179 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.121 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.115 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.224 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.289 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.199 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.195 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.190 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.185 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.188 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.181 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.254 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.301 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.305 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.217 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.204 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.198 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.198 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.203 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.205 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.207 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.208 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.257 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.321 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.331 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.325 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.249 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.253 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.236 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.211 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.210 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.210 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.212 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.225 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.246 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.256 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.209 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.219 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.334 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.354 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.354 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.351 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.258 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.288 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.264 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.244 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.231 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.223 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.218 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.222 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.235 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.258 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.282 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.307 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.337 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.354 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.366 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.376 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.373 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.372 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.317 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.260 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.311 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.295 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.279 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.248 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.237 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.228 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.234 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.240 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.247 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.275 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.295 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.315 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.352 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.364 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.378 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.387 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.391 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.386 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.370 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.352 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.327 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.306 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.291 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.258 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.248 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.237 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.242 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.254 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.258 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.288 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.307 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.322 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.365 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.382 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.399 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.406 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.406 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.398 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.381 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.365 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.340 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.322 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.305 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.280 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.271 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.259 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.246 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.254 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.262 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.301 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.321 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.337 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.383 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.398 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.414 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.423 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.421 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.420 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.413 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.397 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.371 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.354 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.330 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.306 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.294 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.284 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.271 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.280 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.286 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.318 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.344 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.363 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.404 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.414 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.426 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.437 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.439 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.424 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.411 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.391 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.372 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.372 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.365 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.343 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.335 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.327 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.310 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.316 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.319 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.345 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.372 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.392 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.420 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.430 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.438 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.449 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.448 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.416 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.403 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.393 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.387 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.379 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.372 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.367 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.363 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.364 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.360 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.363 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.359 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.393 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.403 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.415 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.433 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.442 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.446 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.451 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.451 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.418 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.417 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.405 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.400 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.402 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.392 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.384 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.379 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.382 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.379 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.392 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.400 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.425 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.430 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.439 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.436 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.441 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.443 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.446 °C every 10 years (clear change)+0.453 °C every 10 years (clear change)DelhiDhakaKarachiMumbaiKathmanduColomboChennaiLahoreKolkata
Change every 10 years (°C)
Cooling−0.50 or lessNo changeWarming+0.50 or more

Solid = clear change · faded = no clear change

For scientists: the exact method and numbersOpen
NASA GISTEMP v4 surface temperature anomalies (2° grid, base 1951–1980), yearly means 1981–2025. Land-weighted regional trend (Sen's slope) +0.315 °C/decade, 95% CI +0.266 to +0.357; Hamed–Rao modified Mann–Kendall p < 0.001. 234/234 land cells significant after Benjamini–Hochberg FDR (α = 0.10). Very hot months = monthly anomaly ≥ 1 °C (1981–1990 mean 1.5/yr; last five years 8.0/yr). Independent check: CRU TS 4.10 also shows warming in 8 of 8 regions.
Finding 2

Spring is heating up fastest, especially in the mountains

+0.47 °C
every 10 years in March–May · Western Himalaya

March to May is already the hottest, driest time of year, just before the monsoon. That is exactly when the warming is fastest.

Mountains warm fastest of all: the Western Himalaya about 4 times faster than the Sri Lanka central highlands, where the sea keeps temperatures steady.

Why is this happening?

In the mountains, snow melts earlier and the dark ground underneath soaks up more sunlight.

What does it mean for people?

Longer fire seasons, heat damage to wheat just before harvest, and glaciers melting faster.

How sure are we?
Very sure this is a real change
Warming in March–May, region by region
Western Himalaya
+0.47
Indus plain
+0.43
Northeast India and Myanmar hills
+0.36
Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta
+0.31
Central Himalaya
+0.29
Central Indian forest belt
+0.20
Western Ghats
+0.12
Sri Lanka central highlands
+0.11

°C every 10 years. Faded bars: no clear change.

For scientists: the exact method and numbersOpen
Median cell trend by season: whole year +0.31, pre-monsoon (MAM) +0.34, monsoon (JJAS) +0.27 °C/decade. Every hazard region has a significant MAM warming trend (p < 0.05); regional 95% intervals overlap, so the exact ranking is less certain than the pattern.
Finding 3

The monsoon rain is moving, not disappearing

+14% vs −4%
rain every 10 years · Indus plain vs Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta

Add up all the monsoon rain over South Asia and the total has hardly changed. But where it falls has changed: the dry northwest (the Indus plain) gets more, while the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta and nearby wet regions in the east get less.

This is the big idea of our project: one warming world, but opposite changes in different places.

We checked this with a second, independent rain record. It agrees for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, Indus plain, Northeast India and Myanmar hills. For some mountain regions the two records disagree, so we don't claim a rain trend there.

Why is this happening?

Air pollution can weaken the monsoon winds in the east, and warmer seas push more moisture to the northwest. Scientists are still working out the exact mix.

What does it mean for people?

Bigger floods on the crowded plains of Pakistan, and less water for rice farms and rivers in the east.

How sure are we?
Fairly sure: two rain records agree on the main pattern, but not for every region
Change in monsoon rain (June–September)
−2.0 % every 10 years (no clear change)−3.6 % every 10 years (no clear change)+1.3 % every 10 years (no clear change)+3.0 % every 10 years (no clear change)−5.9 % every 10 years (clear change)−8.0 % every 10 years (clear change)+1.2 % every 10 years (no clear change)−7.8 % every 10 years (no clear change)+5.5 % every 10 years (clear change)+1.5 % every 10 years (no clear change)−1.3 % every 10 years (no clear change)+7.1 % every 10 years (clear change)+1.1 % every 10 years (no clear change)+3.8 % every 10 years (no clear change)+4.0 % every 10 years (clear change)−3.5 % every 10 years (no clear change)−7.6 % every 10 years (clear change)−8.0 % every 10 years (clear change)+7.7 % every 10 years (clear change)+10.2 % every 10 years (clear change)+2.2 % every 10 years (no clear change)+1.2 % every 10 years (no clear change)−3.3 % every 10 years (no clear change)+2.0 % every 10 years (no clear change)+2.7 % every 10 years (no clear change)+3.9 % every 10 years (clear change)−0.8 % every 10 years (no clear change)−0.8 % every 10 years (no clear change)+2.2 % every 10 years (no clear change)+0.8 % every 10 years (no clear change)+1.6 % every 10 years (no clear change)+1.7 % every 10 years (no clear change)−0.1 % every 10 years (no clear change)+2.9 % every 10 years (no clear change)+0.5 % every 10 years (no clear change)−0.9 % every 10 years (no clear change)−3.2 % every 10 years (no clear change)+3.0 % every 10 years (clear change)+19.6 % every 10 years (clear change)+11.9 % every 10 years (clear change)+4.1 % every 10 years (no clear change)+5.7 % every 10 years (clear change)+4.1 % every 10 years (no clear change)+0.7 % every 10 years (no clear change)−2.5 % every 10 years (clear change)+0.2 % every 10 years (no clear change)+2.1 % every 10 years (no clear change)−1.9 % every 10 years (no clear change)0.0 % every 10 years (no clear change)+3.7 % every 10 years (no clear change)−0.5 % every 10 years (no clear change)+14.6 % every 10 years (clear change)+19.8 % every 10 years (clear change)+23.1 % every 10 years (clear change)+14.4 % every 10 years (clear change)+7.6 % every 10 years (clear change)+3.3 % every 10 years (no clear change)+0.6 % every 10 years (no clear change)+0.2 % every 10 years (no clear change)−0.7 % every 10 years (no clear change)+1.3 % every 10 years (no clear change)−1.2 % every 10 years (no clear change)−2.7 % every 10 years (clear change)−2.2 % every 10 years (no clear change)+1.1 % every 10 years (no clear change)−1.4 % every 10 years (no clear change)+9.3 % every 10 years (no clear change)+25.3 % every 10 years (clear change)+14.6 % every 10 years (no clear change)+16.8 % every 10 years (clear change)+18.9 % every 10 years (clear change)+14.8 % every 10 years (clear change)+8.1 % every 10 years (clear change)+4.4 % every 10 years (clear change)−0.8 % every 10 years (no clear change)−5.4 % every 10 years (clear change)−6.3 % every 10 years (clear change)−7.6 % every 10 years (clear change)−8.0 % every 10 years (clear change)−4.3 % every 10 years (clear change)−6.8 % every 10 years (clear change)−3.5 % every 10 years (clear change)+14.7 % every 10 years (clear change)+27.8 % every 10 years (clear change)+15.5 % every 10 years (clear change)+12.4 % every 10 years (clear change)+13.8 % every 10 years (clear change)+14.6 % every 10 years (clear change)+7.0 % every 10 years (clear change)−0.3 % every 10 years (no clear change)−10.5 % every 10 years (clear change)−11.4 % every 10 years (clear change)−4.8 % every 10 years (clear change)+1.0 % every 10 years (no clear change)+1.2 % every 10 years (no clear change)−5.3 % every 10 years (clear change)−12.3 % every 10 years (clear change)+1.4 % every 10 years (no clear change)−4.0 % every 10 years (no clear change)−16.5 % every 10 years (clear change)−5.7 % every 10 years (no clear change)+5.3 % every 10 years (no clear change)+6.9 % every 10 years (clear change)+6.2 % every 10 years (clear change)−1.8 % every 10 years (no clear change)−3.9 % every 10 years (clear change)−1.6 % every 10 years (no clear change)+8.9 % every 10 years (clear change)+3.9 % every 10 years (no clear change)+0.4 % every 10 years (no clear change)+3.4 % every 10 years (no clear change)+1.4 % every 10 years (no clear change)+1.2 % every 10 years (no clear change)+2.2 % every 10 years (no clear change)−5.0 % every 10 years (no clear change)−12.0 % every 10 years (no clear change)−8.9 % every 10 years (no clear change)+5.8 % every 10 years (no clear change)+4.3 % every 10 years (no clear change)+1.1 % every 10 years (no clear change)+5.1 % every 10 years (no clear change)−5.6 % every 10 years (no clear change)+6.9 % every 10 years (clear change)−0.6 % every 10 years (no clear change)−8.0 % every 10 years (clear change)−6.6 % every 10 years (clear change)+4.0 % every 10 years (no clear change)+2.5 % every 10 years (no clear change)+2.4 % every 10 years (no clear change)+3.7 % every 10 years (clear change)+6.3 % every 10 years (no clear change)+3.7 % every 10 years (no clear change)+12.1 % every 10 years (no clear change)+8.3 % every 10 years (no clear change)−4.2 % every 10 years (no clear change)+10.7 % every 10 years (clear change)+2.8 % every 10 years (no clear change)−2.3 % every 10 years (no clear change)−2.3 % every 10 years (no clear change)+0.5 % every 10 years (no clear change)−8.8 % every 10 years (clear change)−4.5 % every 10 years (no clear change)+2.4 % every 10 years (no clear change)+7.9 % every 10 years (clear change)+7.0 % every 10 years (clear change)+4.4 % every 10 years (clear change)DelhiDhakaKarachiMumbaiKathmanduColomboChennaiLahoreKolkata
Change every 10 years (% of the usual amount)
Drier−20 or lessNo changeWetter+20 or more

Solid = clear change · faded = no clear change

Monsoon rain, region by region
Indus plain
+13.8
Central Indian forest belt
+0.8
Western Himalaya
−1.1
Northeast India and Myanmar hills
−3.6
Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta
−4.0
Western Ghats
−5.3
Sri Lanka central highlands
−5.5
Central Himalaya
−6.6

% change in monsoon rain every 10 years. Faded bars: no clear change.

For scientists: the exact method and numbersOpen
GPCP v2.3 monthly precipitation (2.5° grid), June–September totals 1981–2025. Of 146 land cells, 37 show a significant increase and 23 a significant decrease after FDR control; 86 show no detectable trend. Whole study area: +0.2 mm/decade (p = 0.96, not significant). Independent check with CRU TS 4.10: same significant direction for Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, Indus plain, Northeast India and Myanmar hills; see How it works for every region.
Finding 4

Disasters follow the weather

3 regions
where the worst disaster years match the weather

We lined up the worst disaster years with the weather in the same season. Hot springs came with more forest fires in Central India. Rainy monsoons came with more landslides in the Western Himalaya and more floods on the Indus plain.

Just as useful: in some places the weather does not explain disasters. The Bengal delta keeps flooding even though its own rain is falling, because its floods come from rivers upstream.

Why is this happening?

Heat dries forests into fuel. Heavy rain soaks steep slopes until they slide, and floods flat land.

What does it mean for people?

Where disasters follow the weather, weather records can warn us early. Where they don't, other causes need attention.

How sure are we?
Fairly sure: the disaster records are short (11 to 26 years)
Forest fires in Central India
Fires spotted each spring
2003: 6,4582004: 6,8512005: 5,3602006: 3,6732007: 8,0812008: 7,2872009: 11,147 (one of the worst years)2010: 9,7832011: 9,1432012: 11,494 (one of the worst years)2013: 7,4252014: 5,9652015: 5,7522016: 10,626 (one of the worst years)2017: 14,850 (one of the worst years)2018: 13,866 (one of the worst years)2019: 7,8162020: 4,4222021: 16,981 (one of the worst years)2022: 9,9412023: 7,6232024: 5,815
How hot that spring was
1.82 °C-0.32 °C2003: 0.68 °C above normal2004: 0.95 °C above normal2005: 0.39 °C above normal2006: 0.08 °C above normal2007: 0.32 °C above normal2008: 0.29 °C above normal2009: 0.78 °C above normal2010: 1.82 °C above normal2011: 0.18 °C above normal2012: 0.66 °C above normal2013: 0.54 °C above normal2014: 0.02 °C above normal2015: 0.07 °C above normal2016: 1.49 °C above normal2017: 0.98 °C above normal2018: 0.79 °C above normal2019: 0.89 °C above normal2020: -0.09 °C above normal2021: 0.39 °C above normal2022: 1.29 °C above normal2023: -0.32 °C above normal2024: 0.75 °C above normal
20032024
Landslides in the Western Himalaya
Landslides each monsoon
2007: 102008: 112009: 52010: 91 (one of the worst years)2011: 51 (one of the worst years)2012: 262013: 88 (one of the worst years)2014: 282015: 502016: 362017: 27
How much monsoon rain fell
594 mm275 mm2007: 443 mm2008: 528 mm2009: 275 mm2010: 594 mm2011: 559 mm2012: 448 mm2013: 593 mm2014: 439 mm2015: 487 mm2016: 411 mm2017: 430 mm
20072017
Floods on the Indus plain
Flood alerts each year
2000: 02001: 12002: 12003: 22004: 02005: 3 (one of the worst years)2006: 4 (one of the worst years)2007: 3 (one of the worst years)2008: 12009: 12010: 3 (one of the worst years)2011: 22012: 12013: 22014: 02015: 02016: 02017: 4 (one of the worst years)2018: 02019: 12020: 22021: 02022: 02023: 4 (one of the worst years)2024: 3 (one of the worst years)2025: 1
How much monsoon rain fell
593 mm93 mm2000: 164 mm2001: 227 mm2002: 93 mm2003: 329 mm2004: 177 mm2005: 228 mm2006: 330 mm2007: 298 mm2008: 263 mm2009: 205 mm2010: 440 mm2011: 439 mm2012: 316 mm2013: 319 mm2014: 212 mm2015: 333 mm2016: 286 mm2017: 318 mm2018: 191 mm2019: 314 mm2020: 354 mm2021: 258 mm2022: 593 mm2023: 346 mm2024: 435 mm2025: 409 mm
20002025

Top: disasters each year; the dark bars are the worst years. Bottom: the weather that season, with those same worst years shaded and marked with big dots. When the big dots sit near the top, bad weather and bad disaster years came together.

For scientists: the exact method and numbersOpen
Links are Spearman correlations between yearly event counts and the seasonal driver, after removing each series' long-term trend: fires vs spring temperature ρ = 0.56 (p = 0.007, n = 22); landslides vs monsoon rain ρ = 0.73 (p = 0.01, n = 11); floods vs monsoon rain ρ = 0.47 (p = 0.01, n = 26). Events: NASA FIRMS MODIS fires (2003–2024), NASA Global Landslide Catalog (2007–2017), GDACS flood alerts (2000–2025). A link is a correlation, not proof of cause.
Finding 5

Where to prepare in 2025

2 regions
looked like past disaster years in 2025

In 2025, monsoon rain on the Indus plain was higher than in 87% of years since 1981, and in the Western Himalaya higher than in 96%. Both look like past disaster years.

And in 2025, both regions did suffer widely reported floods and landslides.

Why is this happening?

We only compare places where the weather and disasters are clearly linked, so the check means something.

What does it mean for people?

Authorities can prepare early: check risky slopes, stock boats and medicine, and warn people. It is not a forecast.

How sure are we?
Fairly sure: built on the links in finding 4
2025 compared with every year since 1981
Indus plain: monsoon rainfallWatch
Lowest yearHighest year
2025: higher than 87% of years Worst years: about 72%
Western Himalaya: monsoon rainfallWatch
Lowest yearHighest year
2025: higher than 96% of years Worst years: about 84%
Central Indian forest belt: pre-monsoon temperatureNormal, for comparison
Lowest yearHighest year
2025: higher than 58% of years Worst years: about 77%

A dot to the right of the line means this year looks like the worst years.

For scientists: the exact method and numbersOpen
For each linked driver: percentile of the 2025 value within the region's 1981–2025 record, compared with the mean percentile of that driver in the region's top-quartile event years. A signal is raised when the current value reaches that level in the risk direction. Regions without a significant link get no signal.

Our take

The warming is certain, and it is everywhere. What changes from place to place is how it shows up: drying here, heavier rain there, fiercer fire seasons somewhere else. That is why local, season-by-season trends matter more than one big average.

What we can't say (yet)

  • • Each map square is 200–280 km wide, so one valley or city can be different.
  • • The landslide record covers only 11 years and comes from news reports.
  • • Satellites miss fires under clouds and smoke.
  • • A link is not a cause: land use, roads and people also play a part.

Words explained

Trend
The long-term direction something is moving in, ignoring the ups and downs from one year to the next.
Clear change (significant)
A change that is very unlikely to be luck. It does not mean big, only real.
No clear change
The ups and downs are too big to tell. It does not prove nothing is changing.
Every 10 years
How much something changes per decade. +0.3 °C every 10 years is about 1 °C every 33 years.
Warmer than normal
Compared with the average of 1951–1980, a common starting point for climate records.
Link (correlation)
Two things that rise and fall together. It is a clue, not proof that one causes the other.
Hot season / Rainy season
March–May, the hot dry weeks before the rains / June–September, the monsoon.
Map square
The data divides the map into squares about 200–280 km wide; each has one value per year.
Explore the trends yourself Check disaster risk by region